As the calendar flips to March in southern Malawi, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) forecasts a continuation of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the southern and central regions. These outcomes are being mitigated by ongoing food assistance, which is helping to close gaps in food consumption, largely due to restricted market access for impoverished households. Despite this, the central and northern regions are anticipated to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, sustained by typical income from livelihood activities.
Looking further ahead, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are predicted to persist in southern areas from April/May through September. This is during which time households will be accessing food from their own production. However, their recovery from consecutive years of multiple shocks, including inadequate rainfall and flooding, remains modest. Countrywide, food access is set to improve with the 2026 harvest, which is expected to boost access to locally produced foods, income from crop sales, and agricultural labor.
The October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season brought above-average rainfall to most of Malawi. Yet, localized dry spells between January and February in the south, especially along the Southern Lakeshore and in the Lower Shire Livelihood Zones, resulted in average cumulative rainfall. This has led to favorable conditions for maize, which is currently in various stages of growth and maturation across the nation. In the southern areas, farmers have begun to access and consume maize from the green harvest.
In mid — March, heavy rainfall in central and southern regions triggered flash flooding, damaging infrastructure and crops. Affected districts included Salima, Mchinji, Nkhotakota in central Malawi, and Mangochi, Machinga, Zomba, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Mwanza, Phalombe, and Mulanje in southern Malawi. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent reported that approximately 311,000 people suffered losses to crops or income-earning activities, with over 6,100 individuals displaced and currently sheltered in 84 temporary camps.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) noted stable annual headline inflation at 24 percent in February 2026, with food inflation holding steady at 21 percent. This stability in prices is partly due to traders releasing food stocks and market expectations for the upcoming harvest. National maize prices averaged 1,091 MWK/kilogram across 27 monitored markets, with some markets recording price increases of 5-13 percent, in line with seasonal trends.
The conflict in the Middle East is anticipated to indirectly impact Malawi, primarily through rising global energy and fertilizer prices. This could lead to increased food transportation costs and higher production expenses for the upcoming agricultural season. Malawi has faced persistent fuel shortages in recent years, which are expected to worsen due to the Middle East conflict, potentially disrupting fertilizer imports and affecting agricultural labor opportunities for impoverished households.
Humanitarian food assistance is currently ongoing in several southern districts, including Neno, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chikwawa, Nsanje, and Blantyre, as well as in parts of central Malawi, including Salima. This assistance is reaching an estimated 25-45 percent of the population in targeted districts, covering approximately 25-50 percent of their monthly food needs. Beneficiary households receive either 50 kg of maize or 90,000 MWK per month.
Source: reliefweb
Original author: Famine Early Warning System Network
