Rabat, Morocco — The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has projected a robust 4. 7% economic growth for Morocco in the second quarter of 2026. This projection is underpinned by a robust base effect stemming from last year’s robust activity, coupled with the ongoing recovery in the agricultural sector and stable domestic demand.
Specifically, household consumption is anticipated to increase by 4. 2%, while investment spending is expected to see a moderate rise of approximately 3. 8% in fixed capital formation.
However, the optimism is tempered by the presence of significant uncertainty, primarily due to escalating geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global commodity markets.
The HCP highlighted that energy prices, which had softened since 2023 on the back of reduced global demand, have begun to climb once more following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
The commission anticipates that under conditions of restored stability and secured shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a swift repair of damaged energy infrastructure, Brent crude oil is poised to trade between $85 and $100 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026. Despite this optimistic scenario, the report acknowledges that the situation remains uncertain.
An increase in oil prices could lead to a short — term rise in inflation.
The transmission to other goods prices is currently limited, in part due to favorable rainfall effects and government measures aimed at controlling transport costs. Nonetheless, heightened tensions in energy markets could exacerbate inflationary pressures, affecting domestic demand and boosting production costs. Key sectors likely to be affected include fisheries, chemicals, steel, and construction materials.
As Morocco navigates these challenges, the HCP’s projection underscores the nation’s resilience and potential for growth in the face of a complex global economic landscape.
*Additional reporting by ImNews | Sources consulted: 5*
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By This original article was produced by the ImNews editorial team
Source: moroccoworldnews
Source: MWN Staff
